New England Patriots: New Cast, Same Division Title

To say the Pats offseason has been eventful would be the understatement of all time.  They lost their best WR to a conference rival but filled the role with a guy who most believe is a younger, less expensive version of him.  They also lost their 2nd leading wide receiver and filled the role with questions.  There’s also the small matter of one of their star tight ends being arrested for murder.  So basically par for the NFL course.  Just not for the Patriots.  They have basically been the model franchise, handling their dirty laundry quietly(except for Gronk, but his exploits only seem to make him more popular).  It may be hard to keep a murder quiet, and truthfully they did a great job considering the circumstances, but this has been a noisy spring and summer for the Pats,

KEY ADDITIONS

WR – Danny Amendola

S – Adrian Wilson

WR – Aaron Dobson

KEY SUBTRACTIONS

WR – Wes Welker

WR – Brandon Lloyd

OL – Donald Thomas

COMPLETELY RIDICULOUS ADDITIONS THAT ARE A WASTE OF PRESS

QB/RB/TE/ST/Ay other position you want to list that he won’t play – Tim Tebow

This team is going to score points.  Want to know why?  Because that’s what they do!  You don’t have to like the Pats(and lord knows I certainly don’t!) but you have to respect their consistency and dedication to excellence.  Brady turns everyone around him into a better player.  If Amendola is healthy he’ll be a top 10 WR in the league, maybe even top 5 and you can bet that one of Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins or Julian Edelman will explode into a stud #2 receiver this season.  Brady doesn’t need Hernandez.  Once he’s healthy, Rob Gronkowski will instantly be the 2nd best TE in the game again, and whoever becomes the #2 will be a top 15 performer.  That’s what Brady does.

The running game seems to be in good hands with Stevan Ridley who blew the league up for almost 1,300 yards and 12 TDs last season.  Shane Vereen was only average during the regular season in 2012 but exploded in the playoffs and will likely continue that success.  It’s not unrealistic to expect 2,500+ yards from the running game this year.

Tom Brady is a phenominal QB, but the real reason he and his compatriots have so much time to work with is because the Pats consistently have one of the best o-lines in the game.  Led by 5-time Pro Bowler Logan Mankins who missed much of last year(meaning they’ll be even better this year), this unit returns all five starters and looks to continue the success that has allowed Brady the opportunity to be elite and stay away from those knee shots(sorry, are you Pats fans still holding your breath??)

OK, so last year was far from a succesful year from the defensive side of things.  The team may have ranked 25th overall in total defense but that’s no reason to panic.  For starters their 4th quarter defense was considerably better, showing they close when it matters, and their defense got much better towards the season’s end(ya know, after they realized that Devin McCourty is a below average corner, but an elite safety).

The front 7 is as underrated as it gets.  For starters, there is a very legitimate case that Vince Wilfork is the most important defensive player in the LEAGUE.  Beyond Wilfork they have Chandler Jones who looked good even on two bad ankles.  At camp 100% healthy he’ll be looking for a massive sophmore effort. Rob Ninkovich may not be the sexiest player out there but he’s a Belichick player through and through; he doesn’t make mistakes, he makes plays.

The linebacking crew is just as solid with Jerrod Mayo, Brandon Spikes and Dont’a Hightower leading the way.  At the draft they added Jamie Collins to aid this group with their one real weakness: the pass rush.  The only real concern here is that they lack elite depth in case of injury.  But if they all stay healthy they should be better than 2012 and that ain’t bad.

The secondary is perhaps the only area where even the Patriots will admit they have work to do.  Some of that work was done last season when they added Aqib Talib and moved McCourty to a position where he can dominate rather than one where he gets beat consistently.  They did the rest of their work in the offseason, signing hard-nosed Cardinals veteran Adrian Wilson and drafting corner Logan Ryan and safety Duron Harmon(both from Rutgers) in the 3rd round.  This unit won’t be immediately dominant but it might not be long before they’re considered very good.

So if there’s a spot for Tebow it’s probably here, but who needs a return blocker who gets that much press? Stephen Gostowski is REALLY good at kickoffs, but that’s probably because he does it a LOT.  He’s more than serviceable as a kicker, he’s just under used because they don’t settle for field goals often.  punter Zoltan Mesko might have the best given name in the league but he still has work to do as a punter.  The only thing bad about bringing Leon Washington on as a return man is that it robs fans of more Julian Edelman who did a great job in his own right.  The Pats are stacked at the return game.

I won’t gush over Bill Belichick(mostly because I hate him) but there’s no denying that he’s the best in the business.  He realized long before everyone else that games are won on the lines, not in the papers(hello Eagles Dream Team!!).  He knows how to get the best out of his players and he knows how to dress like a homeless man and still get into NFL stadiums every week.  The ONLY knock on this unit as a whole is the decision to allow Josh McDaniels to bring in Tebow.

The Studs: Brady is a top 3 QB even if he’s throwing the ball to himself.  Amendola is probably going to generate top 10 numbers if he’s healthy for the whole year(that IS a big IF)

The Workers: Stevan Ridley could be on the verge of becoming elite but we’ll wait and see.  For now he’s an ideal RB2 with 1,400 yard potential.

Sleepers: Every receiver on this team aside from Amendola is a sleeper.  Dobson and Thompkins have looked great at camp and Edelman has been close to busting out for a couple years.  Perhaps without the pressure of returns he’ll finally get there.  Ooh let’s not forget Shane Vereen as well.  If Ridley isn’t running wild, you can bet Vereen will see his share of touches.

Overrated: LeGarrette Blount may have a 1,000 yard season under his belt but he’s not that guy anymore.  He hasn’t mattered for a couple of years and won’t this year either.

Should Win: @Buffalo, NY Jets, Tampa Bay, @NY Jets, @Carolina, Cleveland, Buffalo

Favourite: New Orleans, Miami, Pittsburgh,

Toss-Up: @Cincinnati, Denver, @Miami, @Baltimore

In Tough: @Atlanta, @Houston

Thoughts: Really there’s only two games where it’s probable they’ll be the underdog and four games where they’ll battle hard for the win.  They’ll easily be 5-1 inside their own division(they usually lose 1 to Miami) and the opportunity to play the Bucs, Panthers and Browns is almost unfair.  even if they split their “toss-up” games they’re still easily 11-5 this year.  Until Miami proves they are for real, there is no challenger in this division.  Not even close.

A case for Miami: Why Peyton Manning needs to give South Beach serious thought

 

So the great Manning sweepstakes are underway.  On Friday when Peyton and Colts owner Jim Irsay stepped up to the podium to announce what we all already knew, that Manning would be playing for a different NFL team next season, it began.  As many as 12 reported teams would thus begin vying for the affection of the man who is probably best passing quarterback of all-time.  Even though most NFL teams should be interested and approximately 1/3 of them are assumed to have inquired there quickly emerged 3 favourites: The Miami Dolphins, Arizona Cardinals and as a mild surprise, the Denver Broncos.  As late as last night it was being reported that the Denver Broncos and Arizona Cardinals had pushed forward as the top 2 choices, with Denver as possibly the leader in the race.  Let it be known that I am a die-hard Dolphins fan.  I won’t hide that fact, but I believe I can look at this objectively and when I do, I truly believe that Miami would be the best fit for Peyton.  When we look at each teams holes and weaknesses heading into the upcoming season it becomes even more clear where he belongs.

The frontrunning Denver Broncos might seem like an obvious choice being the only one of the three teams to have made the playoffs last season.  They have an excellent defense and a very efficient running game. Yes they have Tim Tebow, and he did win some big games last season, including a playoff game against the heavily favoured Steelers, but at the end of the day John Elway and the rest of Broncos brass have never seemed like they were interested in anointing him as the next permanent QB.  Add to that the fact that unless you have a top 5 QB or are currently rebuilding you’d have to be an idiot to not want one of the best of all time.  Besides Tebow is still young and hopefully with 3-4 years of tutelage from one of the game’s best, he might learn how to throw a spiral. So while there is no question the Broncos should want Manning, the question is whether or not HE should want THEM.  If you look at the way the offense is set up, from the line back it is set for the run.  Their offense was inefficient until it started going through the run game and then it was much more efficient.  While Edgerrin James and Joseph Addai had success running behind Manning, they were NEVER the focal point.  He was always a pass-first QB(as evidence by his gaudy numbers) and may not have those options in Denver.  The Broncos have traded two stud receivers in Brandon’s LLyod and Marshall in the past 2 years and finished the year with underwhelming options such as Eddie Royal and Demaryious Thomas.  Sure they aren’t awful, but are a FAR cry from the talent he had in Indy and even further from what is available to him elsewhere….

Such as Arizona.  The Cards made moves last season hoping to grab a hold of the weak NFC West division once again.  They traded Dominique Rogers-Cromartie along with a 2nd round pick to the Eagles for Kevin Kolb.  The experiment was definitely not a success.  Kolb battled injury and inconsistency and did not impress.  It wasn’t until the back half of the season when John Skelton took over that the team turned it around.  They finished by winning 4 out of 5 and finishing at 8-8, the same record as those Denver Broncos.  What is good about the Cardinals as an option? They have possibly the best receiver in the game in Larry Fitzgerald who there is no doubt would benefit from having a QB of Manning’s calibre throwing him the ball on a weekly basis. They also have a pretty solid running game behind Chris “Beanie” Wells, who when healthy is very efficient.  Their defense is also pretty solid.  It sat in the middle of the pack in most statistics but all of those numbers should increase if they were able to stay off the field more by signing a QB who wasn’t prone to three-and-outs.  On the other side of the coin while ‘Zona boasts a WR of Fitzgerald’s talent, beyond that lies a lot of question marks.  With Early Doucet expected to hit free agency they are left with Andre Roberts as their number 2 and no clear number 3…. Roberts may have finished the year strong but he is still an unproven quantity and their lack of depth will lead to teams double and triple covering Fitzgerald.  On top of all of this the Cardinals are in the NFC, where most believe Manning doesn’t want to play…..

Unlike the Miami Dolphins.  They play in the AFC where he apparently wants to stay.  They play in the AFC East against his great rival Tom Brady.  If there is one thing more famous than Manning’s work ethic, it is his competitive streak.  With the Sanchise re-upping in New York there really isn’t a “sexier” possibility than Manning-Brady TWICE A YEAR!! Yes the Dolphins are coming off a dismal 6-10 season.  Yes the team has a meddling owner who thinks he knows more about the game than he actually does.  Yes the team has had some issues on the right side of their offensive line.  All of these issues are greatly overshadowed by the benefits of playing in Miami.  First of all they definitely have the best recieving corps of the three teams in play.  Brandon Marshall is a perennial pro-bowler who would absolutely relish the chance to have a QB of Manning’s abilities throwing to him.  Davone Bess would give him a phenomenal slot option and Brian Hartline, who may not be the most physically gifted receiver, would more than make up for it by giving Manning the best pair of hands he’s had as an option since the glue-handed Marvin Harrison.  On top of that the Dolphins boast a formidable running game.  Now that they’ve figured out that Daniel Thomas is there to do the North-South heavy work and Reggie Bush makes an unstoppable option-back, their already potent running game will be even stronger.  Defensively they don’t have too much to worry about.  By the end of the season their secondary had gotten past their early season “we can’t make an open field tackle to save our lives” problem and had become quite the shutdown experts.  They may not have been the best secondary in football as Vontae Davis boasted pre-season, but they were good. and Davis cemented his position in the upper echelon of cornerbacks.  Miami had two major weak spots last season.  One was taht they didn’t have a stud QB in a league where you needed one.  Signing Manning would instantly solve that problem.  Their other major hole was at their O-line.  Jake Long is still the best left tackle in the game, and Mike Pouncey was fantastic.  Beyond that they had problems.  Luckily for the Miami Dolphins there is a stellar young right tackle entering the draft by the name of Riley Reiff.  He would be a perfect compliment to their young line.  Picking 8th most experts believe Reiff will still be there and if not surely Jonathan Martin will be.  Both are young quick and tough as nails.  Surely one of them can provide the added protection Manning might want.  The last thing I want to say about the Dolphins is that their record is misleading.  They lost a few close games early on that they should have won.  Mistakes made by Chad Henne and a few missed tackles really hurt the team.  Out of the three teams “in the running” they had the worst record by a full 2 games, but were the ONLY of the three to have a positive point differential.  Think about that.

Look, every team has strengths and weaknesses, but at the end of the day where will Peyton Benefit the most.  He can go to a team in Denver without passing options who only made the playoffs because their division was absolutely atrocious, or he can go to Arizona and play for a team that should be 9-7 with him, but will still probably miss the playoffs as the 49ers defense won’t be getting any worse and their offense can only get healthier and better, OR he can go to where he has a house, in South Florida, play in the beautiful weather, and have a solid chance at once again ruling the very bad AFC.  I hear he’s leaning towards Denver or Arizona, but the one thing I know about Peyton is that he is the most prepared QB in the game, and if he is that prepared for this decision the ONLY answer is Miami.