Handicapping week 6 in the NFL

VEGASBABY

This week I am posting my pics from Las Vegas. I don’t want to waste too much of my card-playing time writing, so I’m gonna get right to the picks.

Regular Plays (Current Record: 29-27-1):

-Oakland @ Kansas City(-9.5) – I don’t like this game much.  I think the Chiefs are overvalued, and haven’t really beaten anyone who matters yet.  On the other hand the Raiders are considerably better than we thought they’d be(Hello Mr Pryor!!).  Just waaaay too many points inside the division.

PICK: Raiders +9.5

-Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay +2 – I am very much aware that the Bucs are a giant mess of ridiculousness.  However, they have relieved themselves of their biggest headache and these are spots when almost every team comes up and makes a statement…. right before falling back into obscurity…. Aside from this, can you really feel comfortable giving points with Philly on the road?

PICK: Tampa Bay +2

-Green Bay @ Baltimore(-3) – The Ravens are a much better team at home than they are on the road but they’re still not anywhere as good as the Packers.  Green Bay knows that this year they’ll have to turn it on e little earlier as they’re battling two teams for the division.

PICK: Green Bay (-3)

-Detroit @ Cleveland +1.5 – I still can’t fathom all of the respect that the Browns are getting from everyone. They are coming off defeating the Bengals who were in a MAJOR flat spot and then beat the Bills because Buffalo lost their QB and WR1.  If the same teams that started that game were to have finished it the Bills would have won by double-digits.  So give me a tiny spread here and I’ll run with it.  the Lions are making fewer mistakes than normal these days are have an insane amount of talent.  Run with them.

PICK: Detroit (-1.5)

-Carolina @ Minnesota (-2.5) – I don’t have a great feel for this one except to think that I can’t understand why neither of these teams has been as good defensively as they were in 2012.  Carolina’s troubles go even further as Cam Newton has been terrible thus far.  He is a notorious slow starter but he’s going to have to learn how not to be, and FAST….

PICK: Minnesota (-2.5)

-St Louis @ Houston (-7.5) – Everything in the world screams that I can’t lay this many points with the Texans.  But I’m going to.  They need this game more than anything.  They are going to be angry as all hell after last week and they’re better than their record suggests.  Also, the Rams are TERRIBLE.  No running game at all, which means no passing game.  When you can’t score points, you lose to the Texans by double-digits.

PICK: Houston (-7.5)

-Pittsburgh @ NY Jets +1.5 – The Steelers still haven’t won a game and are playing a team with a winning record.  On the road.  As favourites.  When something smells fishy it probably is.  This line reeks like Vegas is trying to get a public play on the Jets.  Therefore I’m running with the Steelers.  Also because they’re a much better team with a healthy running game.

PICK: Pittsburgh +1.5

EDIT: this line has moved to Jets (-1.5) and I am LOVING taking the Steelers now…

-Tennessee @ Seattle (-13) – I have no idea how to handicap this one.  On one hand the Seahawks SHOULD be 2-3.  On the other hand they’re one of the most dominating home teams I’ve ever seen.  Ryan Fitzpatrick did little to secure my confidence for a second straight week.  I suppose I’ll assume the Seahawks will be furious after last week and give the points here.

PICK: Seattle (-13)

-Jacksonville @ Denver (-26.5) – ummmm….. it’s the most points ever… take them….. but don’t bet this game…..please….. but place a solid bet on Denver 1H if it’s under 20 points.  I see backdoor cover value here.

PICK: Jacksonville +26.5

-Arizona @ San Francisco (-10.5) – I’m definitely not playing this game but historically divisional games with a 10+ spread have gone VERY POORLY for the favourite.  My brain says San Francisco should run roughshod all over the Cards but I have rules.

PICK: Arizona +10.5

-New Orleans @ New England (-2.5) – You can currently get +100 if you take the Saints here.  If you really want the +3 it’ll only cost you -120 which isn’t terrible.  I personally like the money line which sits at +120 here.  If you haven’t figured it out yet, I am in love with the Saints here.  They have all the same strengths as the Pats, but they also have a receiving corps…. a really good one.

PICK: New Orleans +2.5

-Washington @ Dallas (-5.5) – This game could result in the division leader having 2 wins.  How awesome would that be?  That said I think the Cowboys have proven that even though they’re not a contender,  they’re still the class of this terrible division and should roll here.

PICK: Dallas (-5.5)

(Current Record: 8-8)

(Current Record: 8-8)

 

-NY Giants @ Chicago(-7) – This is my favourite line of the week.  This game is a match-up nightmare for the Giants.  The major flaw of the Chicago Bears is their o-line and the fact that Cutler doesn’t make good decisions when under a lot of pressure.  Unfortunately for the Giants, their pass rush has gone extinct meaning they are going to have to rely on reactionary defense and that hasn’t worked well for them all year.  Offensively New York has had terrible turnover problems and no team takes as much advantage of turnovers as the Bears.  This one is a nightmare of matchups for the Giants and an EASY Bears cover.

PICK: Bears (-7)

-Cincinnati @ BUffalo +7 – This is my second favourite game of the week.  Cincinnati’s smothering defense is going up against a QB you’ve certainly never heard of.  I mean the dude’s name is THAD? Sounds like a fake name to me.  What isn’t fake is the fact that the Bengals beat the Pats by this spread and the Pats have arguable the best QB of the decade.  Yeah this one won’t be close, regardless of where the game is played.

PICK: Cincinnati (-7)

-Indianapolis @ San Diego +1.5 – This line is about right where it should be.  One thing: Philip Rivers absolutely loves turning over then ball on nationally televised games.  He does. He listed it on his dating profile under: interests.  Andrew Luck has been showing that he knows how to win.  This line is a lil smaller than it should be.

PICK: Indianapolis (-1.5)

playalong

Finally a winning week.  We’re back baby!!  We have a few games we REALLY love this week so let’s get to it.

Starting Bankroll: $2000.00

Current Bankroll: $1415.00

-Chicago(-7) Laying $230 to win $200

-Cincinnati (-7) Laying $110 to win $100

-Indianapolis (-1.5) laying $110 to win $100

-New Orleans MONEY LINE +120 Laying $100 to win $120

 

 

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