OK kiddies so on Thursday I posted my pick for that night’s game…. or so I thought….. It didn’t post and I was given an opportunity to pretend I took the Browns…. BUT I DIDN’T…. I took the Bills and believe that had both teams finished the game with the players they started it with the Bills would have won outright. But in reality they lost and so did I…. This week I’m playing a game where I made random selections before I saw the spreads and chose teams via game number(i.e. game 1: Home Team, game 2: Underdog etc). We’re going to see how well I do against “Chance”… so far I’m losing…
Regular Plays (Current Record: 23-22-1)
-Buffalo @ Cleveland (-3.5) – A lot of people are giving the Browns a lot of credit for beating the Bengals in the “trap-of-all-traps” game last week. I’m not. Yes I think they’re a better team than we have been giving them credit for, but to make them more than a FG favourite against anyone seems silly to me. Buffalo has been inconsistent but has shown flashes of brilliance. At the end of the day the Bills have the better QB(probably), the better RB(definitely) and the better receiving corps(apparently). The Browns will have to use the pass to beat the Bills and they haven’t shown themselves to be comfortable doing that yet this season so I’m going to lean Buffalo and take the points.
PICK: Buffalo +3.5
CHANCE: Cleveland (-3.5)
-Kansas City @ Tennessee +2.5 – I LOVED this line when it briefly moved to 3.5 but will still take Tennessee at 2.5. I think this is the week where the Chiefs lose. The Titans are already having a really nice start to the year and I believe that Ryan Fitzpatrick is an upgrade at QB. KC is usually much less of a team on the road and the Titans seem to be rolling. I’m playing a little hunch here but take the points with the home dog.
PICK: Tennessee +2.5
CHANCE: Kansas City
-Baltimore @ Miami (-3) – The public is HEAVY on Miami here and I’m not quite sure why(I just assumed Baltimore as a dog would be sexy). Baltimore has big play defenders and Ryan Tannehill proved last week that he’s still a little green and capable of big play mistakes. On the other hand the Ravens are still a little banged up in the run game and Flacco will probably have to look to the air to put up points(how did that work last week?). Also: Flacco is a HORRID road QB. Miami still looked good aside from a few mistakes last week, but the sacks have got to stop. The offensive line hasn’t been good but Tannehill has a habit of holding the ball too long and makes his line look worse. So many reasons to back neither team here so I’m just going to take the points. I’ll bet $6 that this is a push….
PICK: Baltimore +3
-Jacksonville @ St Louis (-11.5) – Is anyone comfortable laying double-digit points with the Rams? I know it’s the Jags here, but Sam Bradford seems to be regressing weekly and Daryl Richardson is single-handedly destroying fantasy teams throughout America with his lack of production. I’m sure St Loo wins this one but I can’t lay this many.
PICK: Jacksonville +11.5
-Seattle @ Indianapolis +3 – Another road game for the Seahawks after a game they were handed last week. The bottom line here is that I believe Andrew Luck is already 200X better than Matt Schaub and won’t make the same ridiculous mistakes Schaub made last week. I also still believe the Seahawks are a bad road team(smart and opportunistic, but still bad). If they prove me wrong again I’ll have to start believing but this week I’m running with the Colts.
PICK: Indianapolis +3
-Detroit @ Green Bay (-7) – The Packers really need this one. They’re 1-2 and trailing the Lions and Bears by 3 wins. History tells us that the Pack will make a statement this weekend and run over the Lions. I don’t really have a great feeling about this one way or another. If the line were moved 1/2 a point either way I’d probably change my pick. Therefore I’m just gonna go with my gut and assume the Lions are going to give this one away with poorly timed turnovers and costly penalties
PICK: Green Bay (-7)
CHANCE: Green Bay
-New Orleans @ Chicago +1 – Chicago is a pretty good football team as long as they’re not leaving the game in Cutler’s hands. This week they’ll be run heavy against a poor Saints run defense and that is very advantageous for Chicago. The Saints looked great last week but have never been the same team outdoors. If you’re giving me points with a home team that is 3-1 I’m probably going to take it.
PICK: Chicago +1
CHANCE: New Orleans
-Carolina @ Arizona +1.5 – I’ve been struggling with this one for a while. I want to believe that the Panthers are a better team than everything but the Giant game has shown us. Their defense is solid but the offense has looked stagnant for the most part. That will not be helped when the Cards get Daryl Washington back from suspension this weekend. On the other hand the Arizona Cardinals SHOULD have lost to the Bucs last week and the Bucs are probably the second worst team in the league right now. Carson Palmer doesn’t look any better now that he has a stud to throw the ball to, so maybe he just isn’t very good. I hate backing road favourites but I’m forced to here,
PICK: Carolina (-1.5)
-San Diego @ Oakland +4.5 – At first glance I really wanted to take the Chargers here as the Raiders will be without the services of both McFadden and Reese this weekend. Then I realized that I was about to back the Chargers as a road favourite by more than a FG in a divisional game. Yeah that’s not happening. I think the Chargers are the better team here by a sizable margin, but we know what happens inside divisional games and this is just too much to give. Jennings isn’t a horrid running back and Pryor will be back so let’s assume Oakland’s going to keep this one close.
-Denver @ Dallas +7.5 – If we’re being honest, as dominant as the Broncos have been, they haven’t beaten anyone yet. The Ravens are a shell of their former selves and the Giants are terrible. Aside from that the Broncos have beaten up on horrible teams. This week they have a slightly less horrible Cowboys team. Dallas has been playing mistake-reducing football all year and it’s put them in a position to take control of their awful division if they can win a few in a row. This probably won’t be one of them but let’s assume they can keep it closer than most at home.
PICK: Dallas +7.5
-NY Jets @ Atlanta (-9.5) – The Falcons have just vomited all over themselves the past 2 weeks and thus far have only defeated the lowly Rams in a game where they tried hard to give it away at the end. The Jets are by no means a good team and really don’t inspire confidence in anyone but they should be able to move the ball a little bit against a porous Falcons defense. I’m not prepared to count on Atlanta winning by double-digits.
PICK: NY Jets +9.5
-New England @ Cincinnati +1.5 – Oooh please let me have Cinncy getting points…. Last week before the Bengals lost the trap game of all trap games everyone and their brother would have salivated at this line. This week everyone thinks the Pats are getting value here. The Bengals can be excused last week as they’d just defeated the Pack and were a week away from facing perennial contender New England. This line suggests the Pats are 4.5 points better than the Bengals on a neutral field. I don’t believe that. Classic overreaction to a meaningless game. Bengals are the better team and are at home. Furthermore they’ll be able to run with ease now that Wilfork is done. They’ll win by a bunch.
PICK: Cincinnati +1.5
CHANCE: New England
-Philadelphia @ NY Giants (-1.5) – For some reason I can’t get off of the Giants this year. I honestly believe they’re better than 0-4 and I definitely think they’re better than the Eagles. After this week they’ll still be a legitimate option to win the NFC East because it’s really that bad a division. The Eagles are still terrible and their offensive line will look like a doorway to a buffet for the thus-far unimpressive Giant pass rush. These things will change on Sunday. Ooh also David Wilson will run for 2,000 yards and WON’T put the ball on the ground. Probably.
PICK: NY Giants
CHANCE: NY Giants
-Houston @ San Francisco (-6) – Immediately I looked at this and thought Houston was the easiest pick of all-time. Then I really thought about it an realized I was being an idiot. These Texans are not the team I thought they were supposed to be. I’m finally ready to admit that Matt Schaub is a bad QB with a good team around him. Defensive teams like the 49ers eat those QBs for breakfast. Kaepernick has finally woken up again and Frank Gore looks as good as he has in years. Oooh also Vernon Davis is healthy again. San Fran routs.
PICK: San Francisco(-6)
OK, 4 weeks in and we’re still reeling a little. Getting a better feel for the league and let’s hope this is where we get ourselves back on track for good. remember to always keep your bets the same. Don’t get yourself into trouble trying to make everything back in one week.
STARTING BANKROLL: $2000.00
CURRENT BANKROLL: $1320.00
Cincinnati MONEY LINE(+105) – Laying $100 to win $105
NY Giants (-1.5) laying $110 to win $100
San Francisco (-6) laying $110 to win $100