Handicapping week 4 in the NFL:

Well another middling week but considering the enormous spreads last week we managed to keep our noses as clean as possible(Including being 3-0 against 10+ point spreads).  We are starting to see positive signs after what was a disgusting start to the year.  This week we’ve got some nicer matchups and should see things improve further.

NFL-London

Regular Plays (Current Record: 18-17-1)

-San Francisco (-3) @ St Louis – Conventional wisdom says the Rams play the division incredibly tough and the 49ers are sputtering, but the 49ers have too much talent to be this average and the Rams looked absolutely atrocious last week against the Cowboys.  They also looked bad for most of week 1 and the first 65% of week 2.   I really thought they were a better team than they are.  Truthfully I could be saying that about either of these teams.  At the end of the day the 49ers need this one more and will explode out of the gate here and take home a lopsided victory.

PICK: San Francisco (-3)

-Pittsburgh (-3) vs Minnesota @ London, England – The annual game in England is to be played this weekend and the 0-3 Steelers will face the 0-3 Vikings in what organizers are probably calling a disaster.  No one thought either of these teams would be as bad as they are but they both are.  The Vikings lost to the Browns last week and the Steelers have looked horrid 3 weeks in a row.  To decide this one we’re going with the QB we can trust…. sort of… Big Ben doesn’t get sacked and has big play potential.  Christian Ponder’s skill set lies with handing the ball to AP.  That won’t be enough.

PICK: Pittsburgh (-3)

-Indianapolis (-7.5) @ Jacksonville – I know I’m supposed to back whoever is playing the Jags but I can’t here.  Indy doesn’t blow teams out and as a road favourite it just seems crazy.  Jacksonville is going to get a win at some point.  It’s probably going to be in a game like this one.  It may not be this one, but I bet they keep their divisional home games closer than most.

PICK: Jacksonville +7.5

-Arizona @ Tampa Bay(-2.5) – Anyone else having a hard time giving points with Tampa? They are a mess as a team and will be using a green QB this weekend.  If this doesn’t start well it could end up being a disaster.  ‘Zona isn’t a good team either but they look more potent with Palmer.  Take the points.

PICK: Arizona +2.5

-NY Giants @ Kansas City (-4) – I have no reason for taking the Giants here aside from the fact that I refuse to believe that the Chiefs are a 4-0 team.  Or that the Giants are an 0-4 team.  The Giants know how bad their division is and that even at 0-3, a couple wins will put them back into the conversation.  It starts here against the upstart Chiefs.

PICK: Giants +4

-NY Jets @ Tennessee (-3.5) – The Titans narrowly escaped with a push last week which could have really put a damper on my week but they are showing us how improved they actually are.  On the other hand the Jets have utilized a really easy schedule to sit at 2-1 and are currently the toast of NY.  All that changed this weekend.  The best two running backs both play for Tennessee and neither of these teams has any passing game to speak of so it’ll be a low-scoring battle of the backs and I think Tennessee wins this one something like 17-7.  Also look at the UNDER(39.5)

PICK: Tennessee (-3.5)

-Dallas(-2) @ San Diego – The Chargers aren’t looking like the doormat we’ve come to know them as but the Cowboys look like the class of the NFC East after pasting the Rams last week.  Before you make a mess in your pants remember that these are still the Cowboys and the NFL is built upon the idea that anyone(even your high school team) can win the NFC East.  With that said, the ‘Boys will lose this week, allowing the Giants to slip back into contention.

PICK: San Diego +2

-Philadelphia @ Denver(-10.5) – Until the Broncos show that they can’t cover one of these insane spreads, we’ll just have to keep taking them.  Philly has already been exposed and those who think they can be more efficient against this Broncos team haven’t been paying attention.  Willing to lay a ton of points here.

PICK: Denver (-10.5)

-New England @ Atlanta(-2) – This line tells us that the Patriots are 1 point better than the Falcons on neutral ground.  Of course the Falcons have had to play against legitimately good teams whilst the Patriots have been playing teams from the Arena Football League for the 3 weeks and barely beating them.  This line is right out of whack and the Falcons know they need this one.

PICK: Atlanta (-2)

 -Miami @ New Orleans(-6.5) – As a Dolphins fan who incorrectly predicted them to lose badly the past 2 weeks I was really hoping I could pick the Saints this week but I just can’t do it.  They really should have lost at least one of their first 2 weeks’ games but luckily escaped unscathed.  That kind of thing catches up with you.  The Dolphins are plucky and should at least keep it close.  I’m not saying they’ll win, but I expect a backdoor cover in the very least.

PICK: Miami +6.5

Current Record: 4-6

Current Record: 4-6

-Baltimore (-3) @ Buffalo – Everyone is aware that these Ravens beat the Texans last week and the Bills lost to the Jets right?   It’s not as though Buffalo has a good home field advantage; most of their fans arrive drunk and can’t remember where they are by the end of the 1st quarter.  Baltimore is still significantly better than the Bills(who we briefly thought were better than they are) and 3 points just isn’t enough to scare us off, even if it is a road favourite.

PICK: Baltimore(-3)

-Chicago @ Detroit (-3) – This is my favourite play of the year.  The Bears are still in their “beginning of the year, we’re going to be contenders” phase which will start to erode in a couple of weeks and the Lions are overvalued to the max after a couple of wins against really bad teams.  Chicago hasn’t exactly steamrolled juggernauts either but they have beaten the Bengals and Cutler rarely loses to the Lions so we’ll gladly take points in this one.  Also look at the MONEY LINE(+130)

PICK: Bears +3

-Cincinnati (-4) @ Cleveland – Huzzah for us, we’re finally doing something different and not taking a road favourite by 3…. We’re taking a road favourite by 4!! Cleveland’s win last week gave too much credit to what is still a poor team.  The Bengals might be the 2nd best team in the AFC and should be giving close to, if not a full, touchdown.  I’ll gladly take the extra couple of points and run with the striped tigers.

PICK: Cincinnati (-4)

playalong

Well we may have taken another beating but we know we can easily climb out of it if we remain calm and keep our betting at the same pace(This is where people get into trouble, raising their bet amounts to try and catch up…. DON’T DO IT!!).  There are a few plays we really like this week:

Starting Bankroll: $2000.00

Current Bankroll: $1430.00

-San Francisco (-3) laying $110 to win $100

-Baltimore (-3) laying $105 to win $100

-Chicago MONEY LINE(+130) laying $100 to win $130

-Cincinnati(-4) laying $110 to win $100

 

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2 responses to “Handicapping week 4 in the NFL:

    • A little. I still think Pittsburgh is considerably better at QB and can’t possibly feel comfortable taking Minny. I’m not betting this game but I took Pittsburgh in my pools and still would.

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