Hey gang… Well there’s not a lot to say about last week. It was my single worst weekend ever. I majorly crapped the bed and I won’t apologize. It happens. There has to be a terrible week or two within every season, and this hopefully was ours this season. What I will do is give you my week 2 picks so we can get ourselves back on track.
–Jets +11 @ Patriots – This game gives me the willies so I won’t be betting it. Last week I was sure I’d be taking the Pats if the spread was anything less than 2 TDs and now it is and I’m taking the Jets. The victory over the Bucs isn’t instilling any confidence in the Jets for me as I believe Tampa threw that one away but the Pats inability to get things really going is the reason I’m looking at NY here. I think the Pats are MANY points better than the Jets I just don’t know if they have acclimated to their new offense yet and until I see proof that they do, I won’t be laying double-digit points.
PICK: Jets +11
–San Diego @ Philadelphia (-7) – I feel like it’s crazy that I’m willing to lay 7 points here but the Eagles offense threw the solid Redskins defense for a huge loop last week and I believe the calamity that is the Chargers will fall a lot harder. The Eagles offense will eventually be figured out but not this week. Also take the OVER (54.5) as we’ll keep playing the over with the Eagles until they don’t hit it.
PICK: Eagles (-7)
-Tennessee +9.5 @ Houston – The Texans took a half before they started playing this week but they did. They are easily going to win their division but this is a lot of points against a Titans team that looked good defensively last week. This seems like it could be a 20-13 game but I just don’t see expecting a double-digit win here in a divisional game.
PICK: Titans +9.5
-Miami @ Indianapolis (-2.5) – Conventional wisdom states that the Colts are probably a better team than the Dolphins(not by much, but they are) and that means this game should be AT LEAST a -3.5. Therefore we go with the value. Yes, the Dolphins looked good last week but they were playing the overvalued Browns and the Colts didn’t look good but Terrelle Pryor had a helluva game and Ryan Tannehill doesn’t have that skill set and the Colts will probably win this one by a FG or a little more.
PICK: Indianapolis (-2.5)
-Carolina (-3) @ Buffalo – The Panthers defense did a helluva job last week stopping Russell Wilson and the darling Seahawks for the most part and the Panthers probably should have won that game. The Bills jumped all over a confused Patriots team and made a game where no one thought there should be. Last week this line is 6.5 and that’s where I believe it should be. This week the Panthers have promised to let Newton loose and I think he carves this average Bills defense apart.
-Washington @ Green Bay (-7) – The Packers are notably upset after dropping their season opener to the 49ers. They won’t allow themselves to start the season 2-0 so they’ll be going hard in this one. The Redskins showed us that last season was a bit of a “Cinderella” story and they probably won’t be as good in 2013. Alfred Morris is going to have to be ELITE if they want a shot in this game and he was anything but in week 1. Until they show some of last season’s magic, we won’t be giving them any credit.
PICK: Green Bay(-7)
-Dallas +3 @ Kansas City – I know the Chiefs have traditionally played well at Arrowhead and they absolutely destroyed the Jags last week, but we all need to remember just how horrible they were in 2012. I know they made improvements but all that means is that they’ll be better. They still aren’t good enough to be favourites in a game against the Cowboys who beat a tough Giants team in week 1. Dallas is the better team and this line acts as though both teams are equal. Take the ‘Boys
PICK: Dallas +3
-Jacksonville @ Oakland (-5.5) – It absolutely sickens me that I am giving points with the Raiders but I am. The Jaguars were so horrid last week that they allowed an average-at-best Chiefs to beat them to a pulp. I figure if KC can beat them by 26, the Raiders, who looked less bad than usual against Indy, can beat them by 6. I don’t love this game, but if forced I’d take Oakland.
PICK: Oakland (-5)
-Denver @ NY Giants +4.5 – Everybody and their mothers is going to be all over the Broncos this week in the Manning Bowl. Peyton had a magical game last week and Eli was a turnover machine early, and then again late for the Giants. The Broncos looked like a well-oiled machine whilst the Giants looked like a machine that was half-broken. So this is DEFINITELY one of those games where Eli and the Giants come up big. They thrive on games where they are counted down and out. Not only will they cover this one, but I think there is a legitimate chance that they win it outright.
PICK: NY Giants +4.5
-San Francisco +3 @ Seattle – As everyone knows, I think the Seahawks are a really overrated and over hyped team that isn’t as good as advertised. They’ll prove it this weekend. Last week the Niners beat the Packers while the Seahawks SHOULD have lost to the Panthers. There is still a LOT of distance between these two teams and this game will prove it. 49ers WIN OUTRIGHT.
PICK: San Francisco +3
-Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati (-6.5) – The Steelers were an absolute disaster in week 1. After being gifted an instant lead they couldn’t do anything. The Titans played a solid game but there’s no excuse for that complete lack of production. This week they’re up against the much better Bengals defense and it might really be bad… I mean really bad. The Bengals were decent but not where they should have been in a loss to the Bears. They won’t go 0-2 which is obviously more than we can say for the Steelers.
PICK: Bengals (-6.5)
-St Louis @ Atlanta (-6.5) – The Falcons are going to be angry after last week. They know they let one slip. They know they should have beaten the Saints and they’ll want to assert themselves after that performance. On the other side the Rams got by the Cards after a comeback that they shouldn’t have had to make. The Rams aren’t there yet and the Falcons are. They’ll win this one handily at home.
PICK: Atlanta (-6.5)
-New Orleans (-3) @ Tampa Bay – This is my favourite line of the week. Again the Bucs are in one of my gold picks. Last week I thought they were going to kill the Jets and this week I think they’ve proven they still aren’t there. The Saints beat the best team in the division last week so I think they’re back for real. They’re a much better team than the Bucs and should cover the 3 points easily.
PICK: New Orleans (-3)
-Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore (-6.5) – The Cleveland Browns got beaten pretty good at home last week by the Miami Dolphins giving up 6 sacks in the process. This week they play a team who has an even scarier pass rush and a better offense. Baltimore looked horrible defensively in the 2nd half last Thursday but lucky for them the Browns don’t have a guy who can throw like Manning, not even Preston(Canadian politics joke). Baltimore will absolutely run away with this one.
PICK: Ravens (-6.5)
-Detroit (-1.5) @ Arizona – This one is pretty cut and dry. The Lions tried as hard as they could to give away the game last week and still won, based on a ton of talent. The Cards seemingly did everything they could do to win last week and still didn’t. The talent differential between these two teams is massive and that will give the Lions the edge this weekend.
PICK: Detroit (-1.5)
-Minnesota @ Chicago (-6) – The Bears looked mighty impressive last week beating the Bengals who I really thought would win outright. The Vikings had a million chances to beat the Lions, who seemed determined to give the game away, but handed it away. This season sees a reversal of fortunes from the end of last season for these teams as the Bears seem headed in the right direction and the Vikings the wrong one.
PICK: Bears (-6)
Well friends. We royally crapped the bed last week. Took a $440 dump all over the floor but we’re back to fight another day and we’ll get there.
Starting Bankroll: $2000.00
Current Bankroll: $1560.00
Atlanta (-6.5) laying $110 to win $100
Baltimore (-6.5) laying $110 to win $100
New Orleans (-3) laying $220 to win $200
That’s it for now, but please remember, BET WITHIN YOUR MEANS!!
*All lines come from bet365.com, the site I use.